Daphne, Alabama 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

040
FXUS64 KMOB 301529
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1029 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

...New Discussion...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1029 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

Mesoscale Update...Things this morning have become rather
interesting across the coastal areas as storms have formed along a
subtle boundary extending from southeastern MS across mobile and
Baldwin counties into the western Florida panhandle. Looking at
the environment across the area, there are some things that catch
our eye. While deep layer shear is relatively on the weaker side,
current KMOB radar vertical wind profile shows roughly 30 knots of
0-6km bulk shear which is enough for transient supercellular
structures along this boundary. Couple this with a rather curved
streamwise low level hodograph and weak storm inflow around 20 to
25 knots and we are well into what we would consider to be an
environment favorable for the Gulf coast mini spinny or mini
supercell environment. We have already noticed a couple of
rotating storms across southern Mobile and Baldwin this morning
along the boundary. Given this environment, a brief window has
developed for the potential of a tornado or two across the I-10
corridor. While not expected to be a widespread threat, the best
rule of thumb along the Gulf coast is to never trust a boundary.
One limiting factor is rather poor low level instability profile
this morning that might limit low level stretching enough to
prevent a more confident risk. The best window for a tornado is
roughly from now through noontime.

During the afternoon, concerns likely turn to a flash flooding
risk across the same areas as upper level diffluence overspreads
the area. Convective coverage is expected to increase along the
boundary this afternoon and with overall storm motions to be slow
nearly boundary parallel some training is expected across the I-10
corridor, deep tropical moisture profiles will support warm rain
processes which tends to result in rather impressive rain rates.
High res guidance appears to support this as some guidance shows
areas along and south of I-10 receiving a rather quick 3 to 5
inches with some locally higher amounts. While recently drier
conditions will likely limit the flooding potential, heavy rain
rates with our poor drainage coastal communities could result in
flash flooding. Storms should subside by early evening as the
subtle diffluence lifts out and shortwave ridging builds in
temporarily. Then our attention turns to Monday`s severe weather.
BB-8

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 624 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

IFR/MVFR ceilings prevail over the area this morning then improve
to MVFR/VFR ceilings this afternoon. Ceilings then lower to IFR
tonight. Showers and storms gradually develop across the area
today then diminish late this afternoon and end by the early
evening hours. A line of showers and storms is anticipated to
advance into the northwestern portion of the area late tonight.
Southeasterly winds 5 to 10 knots become southerly today with a
similar flow persisting through much of tonight. /29

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 353 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

Light to moderate southeasterly winds become southerly tonight
then southwesterly on Monday. Winds become northerly Monday night
as a cold front moves through, then a light southeasterly flow
returns on Tuesday. The onshore flow becomes moderate to
occasionally strong for Wednesday and Thursday. Will need to
monitor for fog development tonight, including potential dense
fog development. Small craft should occasionally exercise caution
mainly from Wednesday into Thursday morning. Winds and seas will
be higher near storms. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      66  81  59  80  67  83  69  84 /  20  90  10  10   0   0   0   0
Pensacola   68  77  64  77  69  78  70  79 /  10  80  10  10   0   0   0   0
Destin      67  75  64  77  69  78  70  79 /  20  80  10  10   0   0   0   0
Evergreen   64  80  55  83  64  86  65  88 /  20  90  10  20  10   0   0  10
Waynesboro  63  82  52  82  65  87  68  87 /  60  90  10  20  10  10  10  10
Camden      63  78  52  80  64  86  66  87 /  30  90  10  20  10   0   0  10
Crestview   64  80  58  82  64  84  65  84 /  10  90  10  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through Monday afternoon for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Monday afternoon for FLZ202-204-
     206.

MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob